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Q81Section III (Statistics)81 of 145

A product of independent mean-one factors is a martingale

Suppose {yn}\{y_n\} are independent random variables taking values 12\frac12 and 32\frac32 with probability 12\frac12 each. Let Xn=y1y2⋯ynX_n=y_1y_2\cdots y_n and Fn=σ{y1,…,yn}F_n=\sigma\{y_1,\dots,y_n\}. Then E(Xn+1∣Fn)E(X_{n+1}\mid F_n) will almost surely be equal to:

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