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Q14Section B (Section B)13 of 18

Posterior probability of a factory given a long bulb lifetime

Bulbs produced by a factory FiF_i have lifetimes (in months) distributed as Exp(13i)\mathrm{Exp}\left(\frac1{3^i}\right) for i=1,2,3i=1,2,3. A firm randomly procures 40%40\% of its required bulbs from F1F_1, 30%30\% from F2F_2 and 30%30\% from F3F_3. A randomly selected bulb from the firm is found to be working after 2727 months. The probability that it was produced by the factory F3F_3 is ____________

Numerical answer: type the number (no options).

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