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Q22Section A (Section A)22 of 60

Posterior probability of a vendor given a long lifetime

An institute purchases laptops from either vendor V1V_1 or vendor V2V_2 with equal probability. The lifetimes (in years) of laptops from vendor V1V_1 have a U(0,4)U(0,4) distribution, and the lifetimes (in years) of laptops from vendor V2V_2 have an Exp(1/2)Exp(1/2) distribution. If a randomly selected laptop in the institute has lifetime more than two years, then the probability that it was supplied by vendor V2V_2 is

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