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Q9Section A (Section A)9 of 60

Posterior probability of a coin given a head

Consider four coins labelled as 1,2,31,2,3 and 44. Suppose that the probability of obtaining a head in a single toss of the ithi^{th} coin is i4\frac i4, i=1,2,3,4i=1,2,3,4. A coin is chosen uniformly at random and flipped. Given that the flip resulted in a head, the conditional probability that the coin was labelled either 11 or 22 equals

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